tf/stocks•Posted by u/macro_man•3 days ago•1 min read

Full analysis: Why the market is underestimating Mercado Libre in 2026

Due Diligence

Spent 3 weeks digging through MELI's financials. It's the Amazon + PayPal of Latin America and the market prices it as a simple e-commerce player.

Bull Case

Fintech Mercado Pago: 52M active users, +45% YoY. The real growth engine. Consumer credit booming in Brazil and Mexico.

Logistics: Own fulfillment in 6 countries. Next-day delivery in major Brazilian cities. Massive competitive moat.

Advertising: Ads segment at $2.1B annualized, margins >70%. This is the next Retail Media play like Amazon.

Valuation

At $1,850 — we're at 28x forward earnings for 35% revenue growth. US comps trade at 40-50x for less growth. My target: $2,600 in 18 months.

Position: 45 shares @ $1,720 avg.

6 Comments

Connectez-vous pour laisser un commentaire

Sort by:

forex_sarah·3 days agoedited

Excellent analysis. One point you didn't mention: currency risk. The Brazilian real lost 15% against the dollar last year. That can destroy returns even if the stock goes up in local currency.

chart_wizard·3 days agoedited

MELI is incredible but the political risk in Argentina stops me. Milei is reforming everything, nobody knows what's coming.

macro_manOP·3 days ago

Argentina is only 12% of revenue now. Brazil and Mexico make up 75%. The Argentine risk is overweighted in market perception.

commodity_chris·3 days ago

How do you evaluate the competition from Sea Limited (SE) and Nubank (NU) in those markets? They're not exactly sleeping either.

newbie_investor·3 days ago

Which broker do you use to buy MELI? Mine charges insane FX fees on the NYSE.

algo_trader_42·3 days ago

IBKR no question for US stocks from Europe. Fees are virtually nothing compared to traditional brokers.