Markets
SPY5,248.32+0.35%
QQQ18,432.10+0.52%
BTC98,420+1.27%
ETH3,812-1.10%
NVDA952.30+1.36%
AAPL178.42-1.19%
TSLA168.90+2.62%
EUR/USD1.0892-0.21%
GC2,342.50+0.36%
CL82.15+1.17%
SOL178.50+3.36%
DXY104.82+0.14%
SPY5,248.32+0.35%
QQQ18,432.10+0.52%
BTC98,420+1.27%
ETH3,812-1.10%
NVDA952.30+1.36%
AAPL178.42-1.19%
TSLA168.90+2.62%
EUR/USD1.0892-0.21%
GC2,342.50+0.36%
CL82.15+1.17%
SOL178.50+3.36%
DXY104.82+0.14%
TF
tf/forex
156
tf/forex•Posted by u/forex_sarah•

The Swiss franc has become the best safe haven — USD/CHF analysis

USD/CHF at 0.8650, lowest since 2015. The market is voting with its feet.

Why CHF is outperforming:

  1. The SNB has a much healthier balance sheet than the Fed and ECB
  2. Swiss inflation at 0.8%, lowest in the G10
  3. Safe haven flows from geopolitical tensions (Middle East, US elections)

Short USD/CHF from 0.8780, stop 0.8850, target 0.8500. The trend is your friend here.

5 Comments

Connectez-vous pour laisser un commentaire

Sort by:
macro_man·edited

Careful, the SNB has a history of surprise interventions. Nobody forgot January 2015. They can defend a floor overnight.

67
forex_sarahOP·edited

Right, but in 2015 they were defending a ceiling on EUR/CHF, not a floor on USD/CHF. Context is different. Today the SNB isn't actively fighting appreciation.

42
swing_king·edited

What position size do you use on forex? Seems risky with a 70-pip stop on a pair that can move 100 pips on an SNB release.

38
commodity_chris·edited

Doesn't the negative carry on short USD/CHF eat into your profits? The rate differential is pretty significant.

29
forex_sarahOP·edited

The swap costs about $3/lot/day. On a 2-3 week swing trade it's manageable. But yeah, on a long-term hold it adds up.

21