tf/forex
Currency pairs, majors, minors, exotics. Macro analysis and central bank moves.
USD/CHF at 0.8650, lowest since 2015. The market is voting with its feet.Why CHF is outperforming:The SNB has a much healthier balance sheet than the Fed and ECBSwiss inflation at 0.8%, lowest in the G10Safe haven flows from geopolitical tensions (Middle East, US elections)Short USD/CHF from 0.8780, stop 0.8850, target 0.8500. The trend is your friend here.
The rate differential between the BoE (4.75%) and the BoJ (0.25%) makes GBP/JPY incredibly attractive for carry trade. You earn +$18/lot/day just by staying long.The problem: the BOJ is getting closer to tightening. Ueda signaled that ultra-accommodative policy "cannot last forever." If the BOJ hikes to 0.50%, the yen strengthens and the carry trade reverses violently.My position: long GBP/JPY at 50% of usual size. The carry is too good to ignore but the reversal risk is real.
I'm interested in forex but I don't understand what fundamentally drives currency prices. With stocks, a company has earnings, revenue, products — there's something tangible backing the price. But what makes the Euro go up or the Yen go down?And practical questions: what hours can you trade forex? What are the most popular pairs? How much money do you need to start?