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TF
tf/futures
198
tf/futures•Posted by u/commodity_chris•

Gold at $2,400 — is it too late to get in?

Gold broke all records and everyone's wondering if it's over or just getting started.

Arguments for continuation:

  1. Central banks (China, India, Turkey) buying massively — 1,200 tonnes in 2025, all-time record
  2. De-dollarization slow but real post-Russia sanctions
  3. Real rates declining = positive for gold
  4. Geopolitics unstable everywhere

Arguments for a pullback:

  • Monthly RSI at 78 — overbought
  • Retail piling in (contrarian bearish)
  • Opportunity cost with rates at 5%

Long 10 GC contracts from $2,280. Target $2,600, stop $2,320.

5 Comments

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macro_man·edited

The central bank factor is underestimated. They're not traders, they don't have stop losses. They buy for strategic reasons at any price. That changes the market dynamics.

78
commodity_chrisOP·edited

Exactly. China bought 300 tonnes in 2025 without ever publicly announcing it. We find out 3 months later from IMF data.

45
trader_mike·edited

What leverage are you using on gold futures? One GC contract is $240,000 notional, that's a lot of risk with 10 contracts.

56
commodity_chrisOP·edited

It's an institutional account, not retail. Initial margin is about $12K/contract. But yes, 10 contracts is $2.4M notional. The stop at $2,320 limits risk to ~$80K or about 8% of the account.

34
newbie_investor·edited

For smaller accounts wanting gold exposure, micro gold futures (MGC) are much more accessible. 1/10th the size of a GC.

23