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tf/crypto
278
tf/crypto•Posted by u/crypto_dave•

Ethereum fees at $0.02 for 3 weeks straight — is this bullish or bearish?

Gas fees on Ethereum mainnet have never been this low. 3-5 gwei on average. Two possible reads:

Bullish read

Activity is migrating to L2s (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism) which settle on L1. ETH remains the security layer, L2s pay. The ecosystem is expanding.

Bearish read

Less mainnet activity = less EIP-1559 burn = ETH becomes inflationary again. Net supply +0.3%/year currently.

I'm long ETH but starting to doubt. Are L2s capturing value at the expense of L1?

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macro_man·edited

The problem isn't low fees, it's that L2s barely redistribute anything to L1. Base made $500M in revenue last year, how much did ETH see? Almost nothing.

89
crypto_daveOP·edited

That's exactly the "fat protocol vs fat application" debate. In 2020 everyone thought value would stay at L1, in 2026 it's not so clear.

45
algo_trader_42·edited

Blob fees (EIP-4844) were supposed to fix this but blob revenue is negligible. Vitalik acknowledged the problem.

38
newbie_investor·edited

Honest question: does anyone have a valuation model for ETH that actually holds up? Because DCF on an inflationary network is tricky.

56
commodity_chris·edited

You're forgetting restaking. EigenLayer + AVS are creating organic demand for staked ETH. It's a new value sink that didn't exist before.

34